Vietnam to become 4th largest economy in Southeast Asia: IMF

Illustrative image (Photo: VNA)

This is revealed in the International Monetary Fund (IMF) World Economic Outlook released this week.

Accordingly, Vietnam is the only country in Southeast Asia which is forecasted to have positive growth this year, at 1.6 percent and will reach 6.7 percent by 2021.

IMF forecasts Vietnam's economy will rank fourth in Southeast Asia this year, surpassing Singapore and Malaysia.

Specifically, the country's GDP is estimated to reach 340.6 billion USD, exceeding Singapore with 337.5 billion USD and Malaysia with 336.3 billion USD.

Meanwhile, Thailand's GDP will reach 509.2 billion USD this year, the Philippines 367.4 billion USD, and Indonesia 1.088 trillion USD.

For GDP per capita, the IMF forecasts that Vietnam's GDP per capita ranks sixth in ASEAN, reaching 3,497 USD per person this year, followed by the Philippines with 3,372 USD, Laos 2,567 USD, Cambodia 1,572 USD and Myanmar 1,332 USD.

Overall, the average growth forecast for ASEAN-5 member countries including Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam will decrease by 3.4 percent, while that of Asian emerging and developing countries will decrease by 1.7 percent.

China continues to be the only major economy expected to grow, reaching 1.9 percent this year and up to 8.2 percent by 2021. For the US, the IMF forecasts that the country's GDP will decrease by 4.3 percent this year.

The economies of France, Italy, the UK and Spain are forecast to decrease by about 10 percent. For Europe, the figure is 8.3 percent.

IMF revised the global GDP forecast to fall by 4.4 percent this year, and will be up to 5.2 percent by 2021.

The baseline projection assumes that social distancing will continue next year but will subsequently fade over time as vaccine coverage expands and therapies improve. Local transmission is assumed to be brought to low levels everywhere by the end of 2022.

"We were projecting a somewhat less severe though still deep recession this year, relative to our June forecast," said Gita Gopinath, IMF's economic counsellor and director of research.

“Moreover, recovery is not assured while the pandemic continues to spread. With renewed upticks in COVID-19 infections in places that had reduced local transmission to low levels, reopenings have paused, and targeted shutdowns are being reinstated. Economies everywhere face difficult paths back to pre-pandemic activity levels,” she noted./.

VNA